These are the 3 crucial links of any valuation system.
While each one of these is important, the greatest of the three is playing time.
The initial starting point in creating player value is to determine his propensity to put up statistics per unit of playing time. i.e. how many home runs will he hit per at-bat, etc.
Even if you accurately project the playing time each player will receive, if you have not accurately projected his HRs, SBs, etc. per playing unit, your projections and therefore your values will be off.
It is for this reason we spend the winter doing minor league stat conversions and park conversions while our "competition" spends their time writing articles to hype their product.
As an example of the need to accurately predict a player’s performance per unit playing time, we can look to our 1998 program. As shipped in February 1998 we did not foresee the Red Sox either carrying 3 catchers or trading Jim Leyritz. Thus we did not have Jason Varitek making the team nor did we have him down for any ABs and thus we missed on the criteria of playing time. However, because we had him in the system, when it became apparent that he had a major league job you only had to adjust Varitek's playing time to get accurate projections.
In 1999 Jason Varitek had 7 HR, 33 RBI and 2 SB and a .253 average in 221 at-bats. Had we accurately projected him for 221 at-bats we would have seen projected numbers of 6 HRs, 29 RBI and 1 SB with a .249 average.
Thus, when we do our minor league conversions and ball park conversions we are trying to ensure that our ratios are the most accurate so that (coupled with accurate playing times) we will continue to provide you with the most accurate projections available.
This, of course, is an overview of the components necessary to accurately determine each player’s production per unit of playing time. For additional reading on determining "performance" please read the following essays:
· Peak Years - The Myth of Age 26;
· Minor League Equivalents; and
Playing time is the most important element. If you have completely missed
the ABs or IPs of a player
you will only come close to his actual stats by mere luck.
If you do not have an accurate assessment of how a player will perform in the
upcoming season, you cannot have an accurate valuation for him. If you do have
an accurate valuation without having been accurate on his performance then you have
a major problem with your valuation system.
Since this is the most important building block of a solid valuation system, this is where we place a large part of the emphasis of our program. This is the reason that we have our built in "Reality Check" and allow you to see players in the context of their real life major league teams. It was humorous in 1993 to see self-styled "top experts" allocate over 700 at-bats to Atlanta Braves catchers not counting Francisco Cabrera. Of course they do not present playing time in a team format otherwise you would see the fallacy of the system. It is also humorous to see these "experts" allocate at-bats and innings pitched with "great accuracy" on the individual player level (i.e. player A gets 191 ABs and player B gets 282 ABs). Unbelievably we continue to see such basic errors. In the spring of 2003 there are a lot of free sites popping up with draft reports all over the internet. We have seen one that has the New York Mets (without ABs for pitchers) at 5,473 ABs or about 450 more than they will actually get. Conversely this site has the Boston Red Sox with 1,365 innings pitched. By our calculations that would have them forfeiting about 10 games. Yet this website will give the appearance of accuracy because they carry the projections so far as to give Drew Henson 2 ABs. It appears accurate but it is a cruel joke on the customers because the total at-bats for each team truly is a fantasy. Remember, you can fool some of the people all the time....
It is also important to realize that, in most leagues, everyone knows the top players. Where the season is won or lost is at the level of the 200 to 300 at-bat players. This is precisely where a system that does not pay close attention to playing time fails.
Projecting a player to get 600 at-bats and paying accordingly only has a down side. However, identifying players that other owners think will get 150 at-bats and whom you correctly project at 300 is how to win a competitive league.
Thus, use our "reality checks" as you update the program this spring and make the hard decisions that are necessary to ensure accurate valuations.
PRICE
The last aspect of a good valuation system is to determine the price of each unit of performance. First, it is necessary to have correctly constructed the other 2 blocks because without good projections your values will be poor.
Once you have good projections you need to assess each player’s worth in relation to that pool of stats that will be drafted. Thus, systems that look to last year are not as accurate as systems that value players based on who is in the league, who is healthy, etc.
You must also make sure that the system only gives value to those players
who will actually be drafted and that the total salary allocation does not exceed
the league salary cap, etc. It sounds silly to actually have to say those
things, but many "experts" have their systems touted by magazines and
the like and the numbers simply do not add up. Again, here in the spring
of 2003 with 17 years or more of valuation books and essays on the market it is
incredible how bad some of the information out there is. A couple of
years ago we saw one web site offering free customized draft lists. At
the top of the list for a standard
The bottom line is that you must determine a performance level for each player per unit of playing time, allocate a proper number of playing time units to that player, value that projected performance in relation to the projected performance of every other player who will be available in the draft and finally put all that in the context of what is the available salary in your league.
For a more in-depth look at how our valuation system works, please refer to that particular essay.
Remember, any valuation system is only as strong as the weakest link of the 3 components: Performance, Playing Time and Price.
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