One of our great amusements each year is to see some "expert" predict
which players will have great years based upon a common age for all players.
The simple fact is (and this should not surprise you) is that players tend to peak at different ages in different categories.
To prove this we undertook a study of the 100 single best seasons in each category for players who are retired (if a player is not retired how do we know he has had his peak year?). We then looked at each player’s best year from that group and made the following observations.
Home Runs:
The average age of the peak years: 28.7
Median age of the peak years: 31
Year most accomplished it: 31 (28%)
RBI:
Average age of peak year: 27.5
Median age of peak year: 28
Year most accomplished it: 28 (17.5%)
Steals:
Average age of peak year: 27.0
Median age of peak year: 27
Year most accomplished it: 27 (26%)
Wins:
Average age of peak year: 30.3
Median age of peak year: 30
Year most accomplished it: 30 (15.0%)
ERA:
Average age of peak year: 29.5
Median age of peak year: 28
Year most accomplished it: 27 (15.0%)
From the results a couple of conclusions can be reached.
First, with regard to hitters, speed obviously peaks earlier than power. Secondly, age 27 and 28 seem to be the ideal years to obtain the best all-around performance from hitters. However, power hitters will retain their value well into their 30s.
These past few years we have seen a lot written about peak years in various publications. We have maintained for years that a hitter's peak year for home runs was age 31 based on the research noted above. Each year we alert our customers to those players that we think will have career years in home runs based primarily on being age 31. In the STATS, Inc. Major League Handbook 1998, Bill James talks about players who seem to have an established norm and then exceed that. On page 328 of that publication he states "Sandy Alomar leads off the first group; he's been in the league for ten years, and we had no idea that he was about to deliver a career season". He then followed Sandy Alomar with Jay Bell and Jeff Blauser. You guessed it, we highlighted all of those players in 1997 as having potential career years because they would all be 31 during the 1997 season.
The lesson to be learned from this is to draft established power hitters and young base stealers. If you have a minor league farm system, obtaining speed will give you the greatest return during the time the player is likely to be on your team. Thus, draft speed in the minors and pay for power in the majors. Ideally you want to obtain power hitters at 27 or 28 when they are just hitting their stride. You want to acquire base stealers around 24 or 25 which is just before they hit their real peak years.
Of course all of this is dependant on the player’s situation. That is why you cannot just look at his age to make a determination on whether to get him. He has to have a place to play on the major league team for the foreseeable future or he will not have much value.
This study also demonstrates that pitchers tend to peak much later. The most interesting numbers for pitchers are the 1 year difference between average ages and the 2 year difference in the median age. The explanation for this is probably fairly simple. When a pitcher is younger he has a better chance to pitch for a rebuilding team. Thus, he peaks in ERA around 28 or 29. Once he has peaked he becomes an established "star" that is sought by contending teams or else he gives his current team the belief that they can contend with their star if they just surround him with enough other quality players. Therefore, at age 30 he is probably playing on a better team than he was at age 28 so that is when he peaks in wins.
One other interesting side-note from our research. In our essay on Historical Performance we discussed our research on 3 year player histories and the possibility of a player moving either up or down for 2 consecutive years in a category. When we did this we also tracked the ages of the players who either improved 2 years in a row or regressed for two years in a row. In all of the categories, the players improving for 2 years were the youngest, the players in a downward spiral for 2 years were the oldest and the players who flipped from one year to the next were in the middle, with one notable exception. RBI.
In RBI, the group that went down for two straight years was the youngest. WHY DID THIS HAPPEN?
Again, with a little thought the answer is obvious. RBI is more of a "situational" stat than either home runs or steals. Even if a young base stealer is dropped to the bottom of the order, his at-bats will drop but his steal opportunities per at-bat may remain fairly constant and with more experience and better technique his ratio will improve enough to overcome slightly fewer chances. However, with RBI, even if a hitter is the clean-up hitter at AAA he will rarely be handed that spot until he has a couple of years under his belt. Thus, when they first come up the best power hitters drop to 5th or 6th or even lower in the major league line-up. Therefore, compared to their minor league stats, their RBI per at-bat will drop.
Of course, the exact opposite may occur with basestealers who are dropped to the bottom of the order, their RBI opportunities hitting 8th or 9th may actually be greater than those of the leadoff hitter, so their RBI totals may initially need to be "bumped" up from their minor league equivalents.
Anyway, we hope that you found this essay useful and let us know how the strategies detailed herein work in your league.
Players who may see power peaks in 2004:
Nomar Garciaparra Bos, Casey Blake Cle, Desi Relaford KC, Corey Koskie Min,
Cliff Floyd NYM, Mike Cameron NYM, Brian
Return to Strategic Essay
List
Return to PPI Home Page
email question to PPI or email
support@stallvalue.com
Copyright (c) 2004, Player Projections, Inc. All rights reserved.