1> Pitchers
One of the great delights of the spring of 1997 was seeing all the
articles written hyping the impact of interleague
play. Basically, the impact of interleague play has
been so minimal as to be unnoticable in the final
standings. Of course to every rule there is an exception, but you will have to
read the last section for the biggest impact interleague
play will have.
First, from the pitchers prospective, you are hearing about the increase in ERAs in NL pitchers. Start with the realization that no NL
team will play more than 9 games in
Looking at an entire pitching staff you get the following impact. For the
last 3 years the average NL ERA is 4.20. That is an average of 680 earned runs
per year per team. In those 9 games (max, remember some teams will only play 6
games in
Forget about the impact on the pitchers. Don't choose pitchers because their
team plays 6 games in
2> National League Hitters
Another area we have seen which is highly overrated. One published report in 1997 had NL teams getting 25 to 45 additional at-bats for hitters due to using the DH in 6 to 9 games. An average of 4 to 5 at-bats per game. Sounds reasonable until you realize that most pitchers were only getting about 2 at-bats per game to begin with. Greg Maddux has been the best hitting NL pitcher over the last 8 years. He is averaging about 2.8 at-bats per game. He is pitching deeper into the game than virtually any other pitcher and he is getting less than 3 at-bats per game. On average, NL pitchers actually ends up with about 2.2 at-bats per game. Thus, for those teams with 9 games in AL parks, they will garner a whopping 20 extra at bats for their hitters.
Of course, in the NL the at-bats were dispersed in pinch hitting appearances while in games with the DH they can be concentrated in the hands of one hitter. Here we also differ from some other analysts that we have seen. The basic assumption that went around was that a team would give the DH job to their best hitter who is not a starter. Our take is that many teams will DH a player who otherwise starts at a demanding position (catcher, short) or who has a nagging injury and give a positional start to a player you might not otherwise expect.
The bottom line here is that interleague play will not have as great an impact as you might think.
3>American League Hitters
Here is the surprising yet simply obvious place where interleague play will have the greatest impact. It is not
the at-bats. To misquote an old presidential campaign line "It's the
position eligibility, stupid!"
Most AL teams use 2 or 3 players at DH. From the NL hitters analysis you now realize that playing 8 games in NL parks will only cost AL teams about 20 at-bats. Spread between 2 or 3 players, the impact is minimal.
However, the player that most analysts will consider the biggest losers are actually the biggest winners. It is those players who only qualify at DH. Of the significant players they are: Edgar Martinez, Sea, Brad Fullmer, Ana, Josh Phelps, Tor and Ellis Burks, Bos. You have probably already figured it out and have a big smile on your face because you have not yet read this anywhere else. Yes, almost all of these players will take the field in NL parks.
If your league uses a 1 game during the season rule, all these players could
get to play in the field at the NL parks starting in early June. Both Fullmer and
The concept is simple, yet it has escaped most "expert" analysts. However, when you sign on with us you get products which are given thought and are analyzed from a fantasy perspective. The most important perspective you need.
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